National Bank Note Survival Research

Quite a bit of research has been done over the years by collectors trying to get a better idea of how many National Bank Notes have survived. This page documents this research and attempts to summarize and offer conclusions on what that research might indicate regarding national bank note survival.

Research Articles & Books

(In chronological order)

• Predicting the Possible Existence of Unknown National Currency

This 1981 Paper Money article by David A. Brase uses linear regression to predict the possible existence of more surviving notes for the banks in his home county of Orange County, CA.

• Predicting the Possible Existence of Unreported National Currency (an 18 year update)

This 2001 Paper Money article by David A. Brase reviews his 1981 survival predictions for the banks in his home county of Orange County, CA.

• How Many are still out there? An Analysis of National Bank Note Circulation Still Outstanding

This 1986 Paper Money article by Bob Moon does an analysis of how many National bank notes might still be surviving, based on official OCC records.

• (title unknown - get this title from Bob)

This August 1999 Bank Note Reporter article by Bob Moon updates the conclusions from his 1986 Paper Money article, based on additional information and further research.

• National Currency: An Analysis with Values

This 2004 book by Bob Liddell and Bill Litt includes rarity estimates for the total number of surviving notes for each National bank, calculated using a sophisticated currency flow rate model based on several variables.

• National Bank Note Metrics (A Story of Survival) - Seminar presented by Don C. Kelly at the Higgins Museum August 2009

This 2009 seminar analyzed national bank note survival based on survival ratios for each state, based on Number Issued/Number Reported, and adjusted for the relative quality of that state's current census.

• Are there more Nationals to find?

This December 2012 Bank Note Reporter article by Lee Lofthus analyzes survival possibilities based on National bank note redemptions since 1935.

• The Rate of Discovery of National Bank Notes

This November 2018 Bank Note Reporter article by Peter Huntoon updates his previous findings based on his long-time NBN censuses for Alaska, Arizona, New Mexica and Wyoming, as well as Territorial NBNs.

• On the Circulation of Currency from Defunct National Banks (Condensed version)
• On the Circulation of Currency from Defunct National Banks (Full version)

These two 2022 articles by Richard R. Radick analyze...